Time Series Analysis of Electricity Generation in Nigeria from 1985 – 2014

Abstract

This research work analyses power generation in Nigeria from 1985 to 2014. It is glaring that electricity plays a very important role in the social-economic and technological development of every Nation. The electricity demand in Nigeria far outstrips the supply and the supply is epileptic in nature. The country is faced with acute electricity problem which is hindering her development notwithstanding the availability of vast natural resources in the country. In order to analyse this decay, a time series analysis was executed using the ARIMA Model (1, 2, 1) which was one hundred percent significant, and statistically proves that the power sector deteriorated a great deal with low power generation with very high demand. Furthermore, a three year forecast was generated using the Model for the year 2015, 2016, and 2017 with values 3315.48, 3370.03, and 3420.60 respectively in Megawatts which shows that there is serious cause for alarm. Finally, since the decay has been proven scientifically, it is paramount that necessary precautionary measures should be taken in other to fix the decay, that is, the government should try and repair, expand and maintain obsolete power generating equipment and stations as most of these stations have not been checked since they were constructed decades ago. Explore other means of generation such as coal, gas, solar power e.t.c