Risk Assessment of Climate Variability in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract

Studies have revealed that the earth is undergoing changes in climate
in terms of variations in precipitation and temperature in different
parts. These variations have been likened to exponential growth, rapid
industrialization, urbanization and transportation in these parts of the
earth, causing enormous stress on energy consumption. These have
resulted in increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions such
as carbon (IV) oxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulphur oxide. The
Federal Capital Territory (FCT), capital of Nigeria – a West African
country- is experiencing huge economic growth and as such increased
carbon emissions from human activities. Recent studies suggest that
the FCT is experiencing diminished average rainfall as well as
incidence in floods. This study was therefore set to carry out a risk
assessment of rainfall and temperature in the FCT from 1983 -
2010.The purpose of the study is to assess the risks of climate (rainfall
and temperature) variability in the Federal Capital Territory by
assessing the characteristics of rainfall and temperature in the FCT
from 1983 – 2010; determining the trend of rainfall and temperature
in the FCT; Identifying the climatic variable(s) that pose significant
climate hazard in the FCT; Using a risk analysis technique to
determine the risks their likelihood of occurrence and evaluating the
risks/ vulnerabilities of the human inhabitants to the climate risks in
the FCT. The methodologies adapted for this study is the New Zealand
risk assessment method of 1999 which consists basically of three
stages; i) Hazard Identification (ii) Risk Analysis (iii) Risk Evaluation.
Major findings of the study include; that the climate of the FCT is
changing; that total annual rainfall of the FCT has increased
significantly with a decadal variability rate of up to 33.5% posing
grave risks to the livelihood of the inhabitants; that the risk of flood
occurrence in the FCT is moderate; that the present trend of climate
pose the most risks on the health of the inhabitants of the FCT; that
the adaptive capacity of the FCT to the present trend of rainfall and
temperature is very low leaving the inhabitants of the FCT highly
vulnerable.