Geoinformatics-Based Predictive Modelling of Encroachment and Wildlife Crime in Old Oyo National Park, Nigeria

Authors

  • J.O. Ige
  • O. Abolade
  • A.D. Adeniran

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37933/nipes/7.2.2025.9

Abstract

Encroachment and wildlife crime remain critical challenges to biodiversity and conservation efforts in protected areas of developing countries, including Old Oyo National Park in Nigeria. This study leverages Geoinformatics techniques, including GIS and Remote Sensing, to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of encroachment and perpetrator apprehension within the park with a view to mapping encroachment hotspots. Secondary data mainly used in the study, include Sentinel-2 satellite imagery (2017–2023) and apprehension data (2016–2023). Primary data were obtained through direct observation and in-depth interview. The study employed geo-statistical techniques such as Least Squares Regression, Nearest Neighbour Analysis, Pearson Product Moment Correlation, Exponential Smoothing, Kernel Density analysis and Getis-OrdGi to assess the trend, concentration and significance of the hotspots. Findings revealed a declining trend in encroachment, as evidenced by a negative regression coefficient (b = -6.62143) corroborated by negative correlation coefficient (r = -0.4281). The coefficient of determination (r² = 0.1833) showed that 18.33% of the variation in encroachment levels can be attributed to the passage of time. The remaining 81.67% contributed to other factors that included conservation efforts. Encroachment activities were clustered (Rn = 0.249579), highlighting specific hotspots. Conversely, apprehension of perpetrators shows a weakly increasing trend (r = 0.0219), with a weak positive correlation (r = 0.4026) Marguba and Yemoso Ranges were identified as the most critical areas for intervention. At current rate, if all factors are equal it was predicted that it would take about 8 more years from 2023 to bring encroachment into imperceptible level within the park using the least squares model generated [ y = 97.69 -6.62143 x].The main socio-economic drivers of encroachment and wildlife crime in the park include agricultural expansion due to population growth, inadequate  personnel to prevent illegal activities and high demand for wildlife product for bush meat, cultural rituals and medicinal purposes, The study concluded that encroachment and wildlife crime in Old Oyo National Park exhibit contrasting trends—while encroachment is declining, the number of apprehended perpetrators is moderately increasing and both activities, however, remain highly concentrated in the Marguba Range.

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Published

2025-05-18

How to Cite

Ige, J., Abolade, O., & Adeniran, A. (2025). Geoinformatics-Based Predictive Modelling of Encroachment and Wildlife Crime in Old Oyo National Park, Nigeria. NIPES - Journal of Science and Technology Research, 7(2), 131–147. https://doi.org/10.37933/nipes/7.2.2025.9

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Articles