Modelling and Optimisation of Levilised-Cost-of-Energy Optimisation for Plant Selection in an Off-Grid Hybrid Energy System

Abstract

This study aims to develop a selection tool that would optimise levelized-cost-of-energy (LCOE) for a hybrid energy generating and distribution systems using FUPRE as a case study. The research begins with a detailed LCOE modelling process, dissecting the cost components of the hybrid energy system. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify and assess the impact of various factors such as capital costs, operational expenses, and energy output on the LCOE. Optimum solutions for selecting a suitable plant for 9 different supply areas with various energy sources, including, diesel generator, petrol generator, solar and grid, were sought using ACO and simplex method simultaneously, for varied energy need. The result revealed that PV type solar energy which has a fixed operational cost has the least LCOE. However, diesel generators of capacity over 100 kVA could present LCOE that is lower than grid under load conditions over 90% of its capacity. In all, petrol generators are least economical, having least capacity of energy and very high LCOE. Simplex method was shown to be effective for selecting the most economical energy sources among different sessional energy supplies using the developed linear integer optimisation model, whereas, ACO technique failed to solve the optimisation model accurately. This research contributes to advancing the understanding of LCOE modelling and optimization in hybrid energy systems, shedding light on the intricate balance between economic factors and sustainable energy practices. The methodologies presented offer practical applications for decision-makers in the energy sector, guiding the development of cost-effective and environmentally conscious energy solutions